EP4560237A1 - System und verfahren zur vorhersage der betriebssicherheit von gefässe - Google Patents

System und verfahren zur vorhersage der betriebssicherheit von gefässe Download PDF

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Publication number
EP4560237A1
EP4560237A1 EP24163212.4A EP24163212A EP4560237A1 EP 4560237 A1 EP4560237 A1 EP 4560237A1 EP 24163212 A EP24163212 A EP 24163212A EP 4560237 A1 EP4560237 A1 EP 4560237A1
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EP
European Patent Office
Prior art keywords
vessel
data
external surface
region
interest
Prior art date
Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
Pending
Application number
EP24163212.4A
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English (en)
French (fr)
Inventor
Yakup Bayram
Suat Bayram
Hande Alp
Elif Rana Dama
Öncel Umut Türer
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Paneratech Inc
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Paneratech Inc
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Publication date
Priority claimed from US18/518,683 external-priority patent/US20240085114A1/en
Application filed by Paneratech Inc filed Critical Paneratech Inc
Publication of EP4560237A1 publication Critical patent/EP4560237A1/de
Pending legal-status Critical Current

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    • F—MECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
    • F27—FURNACES; KILNS; OVENS; RETORTS
    • F27D—DETAILS OR ACCESSORIES OF FURNACES, KILNS, OVENS OR RETORTS, IN SO FAR AS THEY ARE OF KINDS OCCURRING IN MORE THAN ONE KIND OF FURNACE
    • F27D21/00—Arrangement of monitoring devices; Arrangement of safety devices
    • F27D21/0021—Devices for monitoring linings for wear
    • F—MECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
    • F27—FURNACES; KILNS; OVENS; RETORTS
    • F27D—DETAILS OR ACCESSORIES OF FURNACES, KILNS, OVENS OR RETORTS, IN SO FAR AS THEY ARE OF KINDS OCCURRING IN MORE THAN ONE KIND OF FURNACE
    • F27D21/00—Arrangement of monitoring devices; Arrangement of safety devices
    • F27D21/0014—Devices for monitoring temperature

Definitions

  • the present invention relates to systems and methods for evaluating the status of a material. More particularly, the present invention relates to sensing systems and methods, using machine learning, for estimating a safe operation condition of refractory-based vessels used in manufacturing.
  • thermal imaging cameras have been used to map roofs and walls of houses and buildings to show locations of anomalies comprising trapped moisture, roof cracks or openings causing thermal or water leaks, and compromised insulation.
  • thermal imaging cameras rely on the fact that moisture, cracks, and compromised insulation modify the thermal mass of the roof or wall, which makes the roof or wall to hold onto heat in a different fashion as compared to that of the unaffected material surrounding these anomalies.
  • a vessel such as furnaces and ladles, to melt, treat, refine, and transport the raw material, such as metal, glass, or plastic, used for processing. They are key assets for manufacturers in terms of costs and operational functionality.
  • these furnaces and ladles are constructed using refractory material, having very high melting temperatures and good insulation properties, to create a refractory melting chamber.
  • the inner refractory walls of a manufacturing vessel will degrade during operation. The effects of this degradation include refractory erosion, refractory corrosion, stress cracks, and refractory material diffusion into the molten material.
  • a vessel may include a furnace or a ladle, and the terms furnace or ladle are used indistinctively as the invention applies to either one or both.
  • the molten material may accumulate on the degraded surface of or penetrate into the refractory material accelerating the degradation process and creating a higher risk for molten material leakage through the refractory wall with potentially devastating consequences.
  • manufacturers may be misled and face an increased risk of experiencing either an unexpected leakage of molten material through the vessel wall or an increased uncertainty to conservatively shut down the vessel for re-build to reduce the likelihood of any potential leakage, based on the manufacturer's experience of the expected lifetime of the vessel.
  • the surface condition of internal and external walls, slag buildup, refractory material thickness and homogeneity, rate of erosion of the refractory material, and level and rate of penetration of molten material into the refractory material are some of the important aspects that may require monitoring and evaluation.
  • the importance of these aspects relies on their role to provide useful information to estimate the remaining operational life of the vessel.
  • collecting this information involves a plurality of sensors that may include one or a combination of more than one of an ultrasound unit, a laser scanner, a LIDAR device, an infrared camera, a stereovision camera, a radar, and a thermal scanning or imaging device to ultimately indicate whether the condition of the manufacturing vessel is suitable for operation.
  • Laser scanning devices are also used by manufacturers to a lower extent due to their high cost as compared to thermal imaging systems. Laser scanning methods can provide refractory thickness, but they are not reliable to both determine the depth and size of cracks that may affect the refractory material of a vessel and estimate the penetration of molten material into the refractory material, due to the inherent slag buildup occurring on the surface of the refractory material in contact with the molten material and the lack of resolution needed for detecting very fine cracks.
  • a system and a method can be used to provide an early warning as to how the refractory material of the vessel is deteriorating to establish a level of risk of operating the vessel.
  • No. 2016/0282049 both by Lammer et al. , describe a similar method for determining the state of a fire-resistant lining of a vessel containing molten metal in particular in which maintenance data, production data, and wall thicknesses at least at locations with the highest degree of wear are measured or ascertained together with additional process parameters of at least one identical/similar vessel after the vessel has been used.
  • the data is collected and stored in a data structure.
  • a calculating model is generated from at least some of the measured or ascertained data or parameters, and the data or parameters are evaluated using the calculating model using calculations and subsequent analyses.
  • a system for tracking and assessing the condition of replaceable refractory elements in a metallurgic facility comprising a plurality of identifiable metallurgical vessels and removable refractory elements along with a plurality of replacement refractory elements, which have a machine-readable identification tag with refractory element identification data for assessing the condition of refractory elements coupled to anyone of said metallurgical vessels.
  • this system faces challenges as it relies on the specific information provided by refractory elements, which must be identifiable, replaceable, and requires a means to assess the conditions of such refractory elements.
  • a basic oxygen furnace or an electric arc furnace is commonly used for high-speed melting of the steel and carrying out metallurgical reactions to adjust the final chemical composition of the steel. Later, molten steel is transported to a ladle for further refining, which includes the addition of deoxidizers, slag formers, desulfurizers, and alloying agents. These additives along with the high temperatures at which the ladle operate accelerate and contribute to a severe corrosion, wear, and degradation of the internal sidewalls and the bottom of the ladle, both of which are in contact with the molten material during the ladle operation.
  • electric-arc furnaces with a capacity of 50 tons or more, and ladles are largely used to produce steel. These ladles need to be maintained for removal of residues and inspection, and sometimes repaired as often as on a weekly basis.
  • molten material such as steel, glass, or plastic
  • the flow of molten material at high temperatures erodes and degrades the inner surface of the refractory material and creates a high risk for molten material leakage through the refractory wall or a severe damage to the outer shell of the vessel.
  • a leak of molten material may cause significant damage to the equipment around the vessel and, most importantly, put at risk the health and life of workers. For these reasons, in most cases vessel relining is conducted at a substantially earlier time than needed. This leads to significant costs for manufacturers in terms of their initial investment and the reduced production capacity over the operational life of the vessel.
  • the lifetime and operational capability of a ladle or furnace might be affected by a number of factors, including the operational age, the average temperature of operation, the heating and cooling temperature rates, the range of temperatures of operation, the number of heats or tappings, the type and quality of the refractory material, the slag buildup on the inner refractory walls as well as the load and type of the molten material and additives in contact with the refractory material.
  • Each of these factors is subject to uncertainties that make it difficult to create accurate estimates of the expected lifetime of a furnace and when to perform the corresponding maintenance tasks.
  • a manufacturing vessel especially in the metallurgical industry, to be shut down for maintenance multiple times a year. Further, each shut down can last up to several days, translating into a negative impact on the operational life of the vessel.
  • a typical ladle may comprise a six-inch refractory layer in certain areas, and manufacturers look to operationally use the ladle until the refractory thickness is reduced to about one to two inches.
  • the document discloses exemplary embodiments for identifying potential failure locations in a metallic container configured to hold materials at elevated temperatures based only on the measurements of both the external surface temperature of the container and the thickness of the refractory material.
  • this approach has faced limitations, which rendered it unsuccessful, because the outer temperature of the vessel has little dependence on the refractory thickness for determining the state of a refractory lining of a metallurgical vessel containing molten metal.
  • an alarm may be triggered too late because during an actual operation of the vessel using a more corrosive process may cause a major leak of the vessel before the operator has a chance to catch the leak.
  • the overall shell temperature of the vessel may actually decline during operation, even though the refractory material gets thinner. As a result, in this critical situation, the alarm will not even be triggered despite the substantial risk of operating the vessel.
  • a pattern of reference or "normal temperatures" within a predefined range of values can be identified to provide a benchmark for the optimal operating condition of the vessel corresponding to a set of operational parameters, the characteristics of the refractory material and molten material being processed, and the type of vessel used. Specifically, the measured temperatures over a region of interest of the external surface of a vessel after being initially heated up; operational parameters, including the time the vessel has been empty or in operation, and at what temperatures; and the residual refractory thickness or the number of heats during the vessel's current campaign can be used to establish such a pattern of normal temperatures.
  • flaws may appear in the refractory material or the outer shell of the vessel. These flaws may include or may be due to cracks, erosion of materials, thickness variations, defects, and slag buildup. As a result of these flaws, the pattern of measured temperatures deviates from the pattern of normal temperatures. Accordingly, manufacturers set up a safety margin of temperature deviations from the pattern of normal temperatures to safely operate the vessel. Normally, once at least one of the measured temperatures over the region of interest of the external surface of the vessel exceeds the predefined safety margin, the operation of the vessel is stopped until the appropriate maintenance or repair of the vessel is performed.
  • a system and a method for estimating a level of risk of operation of a manufacturing vessel used in the formation of metals and other types of materials, such as glass and plastic, are disclosed herein.
  • One or more aspects of exemplary embodiments provide advantages while avoiding disadvantages of the prior art.
  • the system and method are operative to determine a condition and level of degradation of the refractory material of the vessel to early warn a user of the operational risk of continuing operating the vessel, based on thermal scanning and the use of artificial intelligence.
  • the system is capable of determining the presence of molten material penetration into the refractory and the insulation by correlating the results of processing thermal data corresponding to the external surface of the vessel with a machine learning-based mathematical model, according to a set of operational parameters related to the melting process, data possibly inputted by a user, and residual thickness of the refractory material or number of heats the vessel has experienced in the campaign.
  • the system for estimating a level of risk of operation of a manufacturing vessel comprises a plurality of subsystems.
  • a thermal scanning subsystem to collect data for determining the temperature, of a region of interest, of the external surface of a manufacturing vessel to be evaluated, a machine learning-based mathematical model for such region of interest, and a data processing subsystem to manage the collected data and to use the machine learning-based mathematical model and additional operational and possibly user's input parameters to correlate both the temperature of the external surface of the vessel and its variations with the level of risk of operating the vessel.
  • the results of the evaluation of the vessel comprise one or more of a calculation of a qualitative or a quantitative level of risk of operating the vessel, a determination or estimation of the molten material penetration into the refractory or the insulation material behind the refractory, the surface profile, or the rate of degradation over time of the molten material penetration of the vessel, an early warning to the user about the future operation of the vessel, or the remaining operational life of the vessel.
  • the thermal scanning subsystem comprises a first sensor, such as a thermal scanner, a thermal imaging camera, or an infrared camera for determining the temperature of the external surface of the manufacturing vessel, which can be used to collect and communicate temperature data corresponding to a specific region of the vessel.
  • the temperature data is mapped to have a representation of the temperature values over such region.
  • a vessel may include a furnace or a ladle, and the terms furnace or ladle are used indistinctively as the invention applies to either one or both.
  • the system further comprises a machine learning-based mathematical model for providing a range of temperatures of the external surface of the vessel over such region of interest correlated to a level of risk of operation of the vessel.
  • This model is developed and trained using a dataset comprising data that include refractory material size, type, and chemical composition, vessel shell material type and size, operational parameters, duration when the vessel is empty, the duration when the vessel is full with molten material, number of heats, and temperature of molten material, possibly other user's inputs, ambient temperature surrounding the vessel, external surface temperatures associated to the heat and melting processes of a region of interest for a plurality of manufacturing vessels and molten materials, according to machine learning techniques.
  • the data processing subsystem comprises a main computer-based processor further comprising a data storage device and an executable computer code.
  • the data processing subsystem code is configured to process the data collected by at least the first sensor and the input information, including the operational and process parameters, the number of heats during the vessel's current campaign or alternatively the remaining refractory material thickness, and possibly the user's input.
  • the data processing subsystem is further configured to use the machine learning-based algorithm to compare the actual temperature measurements of the external surface of the vessel with the range of temperatures provided by the model, according to a set of operational parameters related to the melting process, data possibly inputted by a user, and number of heats or the contact time of molten material with the vessel during the ongoing campaign or the prior thickness of the refractory material.
  • the data processing subsystem may be configured to process data or information from a plurality of sensors that may include one or a combination of more than one of an ultrasound unit, a laser scanner, a LIDAR device, a stereovision camera, a fiber optic-based device, and a radar.
  • the system can calculate the level of risk of operating the vessel, based on the deviations of the measured values of temperatures of the external surface of the vessel from the values provided by the machine learning-based mathematical model.
  • the data processing subsystem may be configured to process the values of temperatures of the external surface of the vessel, according to a plurality of residual thicknesses over the region of the material under evaluation and for multiple heats of the vessel, to assess the variability of these temperatures and calculate the level of risk of operating the vessel.
  • the system may determine the presence of certain flaws within the refractory material and the remaining thickness of such material to early warn a user of the operational risk of operating the vessel. This information may be further processed to estimate the remaining operational life and improve the maintenance plan of the vessel under evaluation.
  • the first sensor is disposed not in physical contact with the manufacturing vessel.
  • any of the various types of sensors that may be used to collect information prior, during, or after operation of the vessel may be disposed not in physical contact with, embedded in the refractory material of, or in physical contact with the vessel, according to the type of sensor used.
  • the first sensor may comprise a mesh or grid formed by a plurality of sections of optical fiber laid out on or around the external surface of the vessel, such that first sensor is able to map the temperatures of the external surface of the vessel.
  • different attachment mechanisms might be incorporated with any of these sensors to physically position the sensor inside or outside the vessel's chamber at one or more locations.
  • the method for calculating a level of risk of operating a manufacturing vessel and estimating the remaining operational life of such vessel involves the steps of collecting data, including size, type, chemical composition, operational parameters, duration when the vessel is empty, the duration when the vessel is full with molten material, status, and temperature of molten material, possibly user's input, and external surface temperatures, associated to the heat and melting processes, of a region of interest for a plurality of manufacturing vessels and molten materials as well as creating a machine learning-based mathematical model to correlate an operational condition of the vessel's refractory material, the external surface temperatures of the vessel, the type of molten material, and the corresponding operational parameters, as previously noted, for the given region of interest.
  • the method further includes the step of determining a distribution of temperature ranges of the external surface of the region of interest associated to a level of risk of operation of a specific vessel according to the machine learning-based mathematical model in a certain region of interest.
  • the method also includes the steps of measuring the external surface temperatures of the specific vessel over such region of interest, comparing these measurements with the distribution of temperature ranges of the external surface of the specific vessel, and calculating the risk of operation of the vessel, according to the difference between the measured temperatures and the modeled distribution of temperature ranges.
  • the method further includes processing the data collected, determined, measured, or calculated to analyze, forecast, and provide information useful to estimate the remaining operational life and improve the maintenance plan of the vessel under evaluation.
  • the system and method are able to calculate the risk of operating the vessel in real time, while the vessel is in operation or has completed a heat. This translates into more effective and accurate scheduling to better manage the costly processes of manufacturing vessel repairs, decommissioning, or replacement along with a significant reduction of the level of risk of an operational break or leakage of molten material or severe damage to the vessel metal outer shell.
  • the system and method allow a more effective operational assessment of manufacturing vessels, which may translate into a reduction of operational uncertainty and safer operations along with a potential extent of the operational life and an improved maintenance scheduling of such costly assets.
  • the system for estimating a level of risk of operation of a manufacturing vessel integrates a plurality of subsystems, comprising a thermal scanning subsystem to collect data for determining the temperature, of a region of interest, of the external surface of a manufacturing vessel to be evaluated; a machine learning-based mathematical model for such region of interest; and a data processing subsystem to manage the collected data and to use the machine learning-based mathematical model and additional operational and possibly user's input parameters to correlate both the temperature of the external surface of the vessel and its variations with the level of risk of operating the vessel in real time, while the vessel is in operation or has completed a heat.
  • a thermal scanning subsystem to collect data for determining the temperature, of a region of interest, of the external surface of a manufacturing vessel to be evaluated
  • a machine learning-based mathematical model for such region of interest
  • a data processing subsystem to manage the collected data and to use the machine learning-based mathematical model and additional operational and possibly user's input parameters to correlate both the temperature of the external surface of the vessel and its variations with the level
  • results of using the system and method for evaluating a manufacturing vessel may comprise one or more of a calculation of a qualitative or a quantitative level of risk of operating the vessel; a determination or estimation of the remaining thickness, the surface profile, or the rate of degradation over time of the refractory material of the vessel; an early warning to the user about the future operation of the vessel; the remaining operational life of the vessel; and an improved maintenance plan of the vessel.
  • Figure 1 shows a schematic view of an exemplary embodiment of a system 10 for estimating a level of risk of operation of a manufacturing vessel 12.
  • vessel 12 comprises a plurality of layers of a refractory material 14.
  • the various layers of refractory material 14 are formed using bricks disposed side-by-side from the bottom to the top of vessel 12.
  • refractory material 14 is disposed in one or more layers between a chamber 15, wherein melting of a material, such as steel, glass, or plastic, takes place during operation of the vessel, and the external bottom and external side walls of vessel 12.
  • refractory material 14 forms one or more walls at least partly surrounding chamber 15 of vessel 12.
  • refractory material 14 has an innermost surface, which might be contiguous to (i.e., in contact with) a molten material, contained within chamber 15 during operation of vessel 12, and an outermost surface closer to the exterior region surrounding vessel 12.
  • vessel 12 has an outer shell 24 surrounding refractory material 14.
  • an external surface 16 of vessel 12 may comprise either the outermost surface of refractory material 14 or at least part of outer shell 24.
  • outer shell 24 of vessel 12 is made of steel, but those skilled in the art will realize that outer shell 24 may be made using other types of material and alloys.
  • a thermal scanning subsystem is used to collect data for determining the temperatures over a region of interest 22 of external surface 16 of vessel 12.
  • the thermal scanning subsystem comprises at least one first sensor 20 able to detect the radiation emitted by an object in a band of the electromagnetic spectrum, including the infrared band, wherein the amount of emitted radiation can be correlated with the physical temperature of such object as well-known in the prior art.
  • first sensor 20 is properly positioned to detect a radiation 25 emitted by region 22 of external surface 16 of vessel 12.
  • First sensor 20 is a non-contact subsystem that allows collecting temperature data over region 22 of external surface 16 of vessel 12 at a distance from vessel 12.
  • first sensor 20 is part of a thermal data scanner configured to measure the temperatures over region 22. More preferably, first sensor 20 is part of a thermal imaging system capable of mapping the values of the measured temperatures over region 22 by converting these values into a range of tonalities to form an image.
  • the measured temperatures over region 22 of external surface 16 of vessel 12 might be representative of a condition of refractory material 14 and are collected while vessel 12 is in operation.
  • certain flaws, including cracks and voids, the presence of molten material inside of refractory material 14, slag buildup on the inner wall of refractory material 14, or a degradation of refractory material 14 may translate into a variation of measured temperature values over region 22, as compared to a set of reference temperature values.
  • System 10 further comprises a data processing subsystem 26 to manage input data associated to operational or process data of vessel 12, additional input parameters which may be provided by a user or preset, recorded, or historical data, and the data collected by first sensor 20 to calculate the level of risk of operating vessel 12.
  • system 10 further comprises a machine learning-based mathematical model (MLMM) 28 integrated with data processing subsystem 26.
  • MLMM machine learning-based mathematical model
  • Data processing subsystem 26 comprises a number of hardware components, such as a data storage device and a main computer-based processor, both of which can be integrated with first sensor 20 to process the data generated during the operation of system 10.
  • the computer-based processor of data processing subsystem 26 is configured to operate machine learning-based mathematical model 28.
  • data processing subsystem 26 is able to integrate and process a plurality of input data to allow system 10 to calculate the risk of operating vessel 12 and to determine the presence of certain flaws in and the remaining thickness of refractory material 14, in real time, during operation of vessel 12.
  • machine learning-based mathematical model 28 comprises a software architecture further comprising machine learning algorithms.
  • Model 28 is configured to receive at least one input, consisting of data, and to generate at least one output.
  • Model 28 is configured to receive as input at least three sets of data corresponding to multiple vessels, if possible, including various types, and one or more types, sizes, and chemical compositions of molten and refractory materials under a variety of operational and process conditions.
  • These three sets of data include a first set of preset, recorded, or historical data, which may comprise user's input information; a second set of data comprising operational or process parameters; and a third set of data including the measured temperatures in at least one region of the external surface of the multiple vessels during their operation.
  • the collection of input data corresponds to a plurality of regions of these multiple vessels.
  • the input data are used for training and validating one or more customized machine learning-based algorithms to create customized machine learning-based model 28.
  • the first set of data may include preset, recorded, or historical data, which may comprise information inputted by a user into data processing subsystem 26.
  • This first set of data may include the number of heats or tappings, remaining thickness, rate of degradation, erosion profile of internal walls, type, quality, original and actual chemical composition, and operational age of, the presence of cracks in, and the level of penetration of one or more types of molten material into, refractory material 14, before processing one or more types of molten material using vessel 12.
  • the first set of data may also include historical information related to the maintenance of refractory material 14, such as replacement or repair of a part of refractory material 14 including the type, amount, and location of additives or replaced parts applied to refractory material 14, and the physical design of refractory material 14.
  • the physical design of refractory material 14 may include the type, shape, size, dimensions, number of layers, and layout of the physical disposition of refractory material 14 as part of vessel 12.
  • the first set of data may further comprise any operational and process parameters, as disclosed in the second set of data below, used during a prior operation of vessel 12.
  • the second set of data comprises operational and process parameters such as type and properties, including amount, average and peak processing temperatures, heating and cooling temperature profiles, treatment times, and chemical composition, of the molten material being or to be processed using vessel 12; thickness and composition of the slag buildup in vessel 12; ambient temperature surrounding vessel 12, tapping times using vessel 12; how the molten material is or will be poured or tapped into or out of vessel 12; preheating temperature profile while vessel 12 is empty; time during which the molten material is in contact with refractory material 14 (residence time); stirring time, level of pressure and flow rate of inert gas applied to vessel 12 during stirring; physical and chemical attributes and amounts of additives used or to be used in processing the molten material to produce a desired steel or other material grade; and any other relevant operational parameter for production of steel or other material using vessel 12.
  • the additives used in steel or other material processing may include charging mix components, alloys, slag formers, and flux chemicals.
  • the third set of data includes the measured temperatures over at least one region of the external surface of a plurality of manufacturing vessels during the processing of one or more types of molten materials at various heats in a single or multiple campaign.
  • the information from these three sets of data provides the basis to create customized machine learning-based mathematical model 28 by correlating both the temperatures over region 22 of external surface 16 of vessel 12 and its variations from reference, normal temperature values with the level of penetration of one or more types of molten material within refractory material 14 and/or the level of risk of operating vessel 12.
  • the measured surface temperatures of vessel 12 immediately preceding and during the current heat as well as the residence time, the thickness and composition of the slag buildup in vessel 12, the remaining thickness of refractory material 14, and the temperature profile and duration while vessel 12 was empty, immediately preceding the current heat are extremely relevant.
  • the surface temperatures of vessel 12 do not have to be measured immediately preceding the current heat, as long as the empty time vessel time, residence time and molten material temperature are tracked from the time surface temperatures of vessel 12 are measured and the current heat.
  • At least a portion of the data in the first, second, and third sets of data may be obtained by measurements performed using a variety of measurement devices available in the marketplace or by using recorded information, as well known to one skilled in the art.
  • any of the information pertaining to the first, second, and third sets of data may be inputted into data processing subsystem 26 by a user.
  • customized machine learning-based model 28 is trained, using at least part of the first, second, and third sets of data as input data, to correlate the input data to generate at least one output comprising a distribution of temperature ranges corresponding to the at least one region of the external surface of multiple vessels.
  • model 28 is capable of generating an output, consisting of a distribution of temperature ranges over region 22 of external surface 16 of vessel 12, for a given input consisting of a specific first set of data and a specific second set of data, as noted above.
  • model 28 correlates this distribution of temperature ranges with both the level of penetration of one or more types of molten material within refractory material 14 and the level of risk of operating vessel 12.
  • data processing subsystem 26 is capable of estimating a level of penetration of one or more types of molten material within refractory material 14 and calculating a level of risk of operating vessel 12 for a given temperature over region 22 of external surface 16 of vessel 12, based on at least one output of model 28.
  • model 28 determines the expected safe range of external temperatures, at least in part, by processing the first set of data and the second set of data, including the measured temperatures over region 22 for one or more heats prior to the ongoing heat, under multiple operational scenarios of vessel 12 and fitting these data to one of a plurality of probability distribution functions.
  • probability distributions are useful in quantifying and visualizing the uncertainty and variability of the data, and for statistically characterizing and estimating the expected temperature values and the range of variance of the temperature values.
  • model 28 is also configured for processing the first set of data and the second set of data under multiple operational scenarios of vessel 12 to produce a customized, unique probability distribution function generated to fit these particular data by means of an algorithm to optimize a function to get the largest statistical coefficient of determination such as R-squared and the smallest statistical mean squared error.
  • the coefficient of determination and the mean squared error are statistical metrics well-known in the prior art.
  • the generation of a customized, unique probability distribution function that fits these data and situation allows to calculate more accurately various measures of risk, such as the expected value and the statistical variance, which are indicative of the most likely outcome and the level of uncertainty of that outcome.
  • model 28 is configured to estimate percentiles and confidence intervals, which show the range of possible outcomes and the probability of achieving them.
  • data processing subsystem 26 can not only determine whether the vessel is operating within a safe range of external surface temperatures, but also compute the difference between the measured temperatures and the temperatures at which operating vessel 12 is unsafe. Even further, based on the output of model 28, data processing subsystem 26 can calculate a level of risk of operating vessel 12, according to the difference between the measured temperatures and the temperatures at which operating vessel 12 is unsafe, in real time while vessel 12 is processing a molten material.
  • a difference between the measured actual temperature and the predicted temperature resulting in a variance larger than a predefined threshold might be considered statistically significant. If that is the case, a customized second-level algorithm is activated to further evaluate the measured temperatures for identifying a potential development of a hotspot in a specific locality within region 22.
  • the customized second-level algorithm may calculate the temperature variations in the specific locality within region 22 where a hotspot might be developing. Then, the calculated temperature variations are compared to a predefined temperature variation threshold. If the calculated temperature variations exceed the temperature variation threshold, the potential development of a hotspot is confirmed.
  • the customized second-level algorithm may determine the development of a potential hotspot by conducting a time series analysis. Specifically, the customized second-level algorithm may perform this analysis by calculating the Kendall rank correlation coefficient or the Euclidean distance, applying an outcome of a dynamic time warping, relying on an outcome of any other time series analysis algorithm, or a combination thereof, as known in the prior art, and in reference to the measured temperature changes over time to confirm the potential development of a hotspot.
  • a customized second-level algorithm may be implemented based on a machine learning algorithm, which may be trained using measured temperatures data and their variations from multiple heats and a plurality of regions of one or more vessels and the corresponding time series analysis data as well-known to those skilled in the art.
  • model 28 Once a a potential development of a hotspot is identified, model 28 generates an output such that data processing subsystem 26 generates a warning message to a user.
  • the output of the customized second-level algorithm can be used to determine more accurately a potential development of a hotspot and calculate the risk of operation of vessel 12, to predict the degradation of and molten material penetration into refractory material 14 of vessel 12, and to estimate the remaining operational life and optimize the maintenance plan of vessel 12.
  • model 28 is generated from data which are evaluated by calculations and subsequent analyses using at least a machine learning-based algorithm.
  • these data include measured temperatures over at least one region of the external surface of at least a manufacturing vessel during the processing of at least a molten material.
  • these data are used by model 28 to generate at least one output for reference and/or predicting a level of risk of operating vessel 12.
  • these measured temperatures data correspond to vessel 12 while processing a molten material
  • these data are used by model 28 to generate at least one output to calculate a level of risk of operating vessel 12 in real time while vessel 12 is in operation.
  • the number of heats undergone by vessel 12 during an ongoing campaign is part of the specific first set of data or the specific second set of data used as input into data processing subsystem 26 to calculate the level of risk of operating vessel 12.
  • the contact time of molten material with vessel 12 or the thickness of refractory material 14 prior to the processing of a molten material in vessel 12 is preferably part of the specific first set of data or the specific second set of data used as input to data processing subsystem 26 to calculate the level of risk of operating vessel 12.
  • data processing subsystem 26 is capable of determining the thickness of refractory material 14 and estimating the remaining operational life and the maintenance plan of vessel 12.
  • data processing subsystem 26 can estimate the remaining thickness of refractory material and molten material penetration 14 from the thickness of refractory material 14 prior to the processing of a molten material in vessel 12 and by factoring in the operational and process parameters used in the actual processing of such molten material in vessel 12, without the need of external temperature readings.
  • model 28 is generated by correlating the specific data as mentioned above.
  • model 28 allows warning users and providing safety margins of operation of vessel 12, according to the calculated level of risk of operating vessel 12, determining a level or rate of penetration of one or more types of molten material into refractory material 14, estimating the remaining operational life of vessel 12, and determining what and when to perform preventive and corrective maintenance actions, regarding vessel 12, in real time, during operation of vessel 12 or after vessel 12 complete a heat.
  • customized machine learning-based mathematical model 28 may be implemented or programmed in multiple ways by those skilled in the art in view of the disclosure herein and their knowledge of artificial intelligence and mathematical models.
  • the output from data processing subsystem 26, as a result of evaluating vessel 12 using model 28, comprises a qualitative assessment of the level of risk of operating vessel 12.
  • this qualitative assessment may involve identifying the risk of operating vessel 12 as very high, high, medium, low, or very low, according to the measured temperatures over region 22 of external surface 16 of vessel 12.
  • data processing subsystem 26 may provide an early warning to the user about the risk of operating vessel 12 as an alert notification or red flag signaling.
  • the output from data processing subsystem 26 comprises a quantitative assessment of the level of risk of operating vessel 12.
  • this quantitative assessment may involve identifying the risk of operating vessel 12 as a probability or percentage of the potential failure of vessel 12 during processing a molten material.
  • the output from data processing subsystem 26 further comprises a determination of the presence of penetration of one or more types of molten material into refractory material 14 of vessel 12 or the remaining thickness, the surface profile, or the rate of degradation over time of refractory material 14 of vessel 12 to estimate the remaining operational life and or an improved maintenance plan of vessel 12, including preventive or corrective maintenance of vessel 12.
  • data processing subsystem 26 may control the operation of first sensor 20. It is noted that the additional hardware components of data processing subsystem 26 have not been shown as these components are not critical to the explanation of this embodiment and the functions and configurations of these components are well-known in the prior art. Furthermore, in reference to Figure 1 , those skilled in the art will realize that set of cables 19 may be replaced with a wireless system to couple first sensor 20 to data processing subsystem 26.
  • data processing subsystem 26 further comprises a customized artificial intelligence-based software.
  • This software may comprise one or more customized machine learning-based algorithms developed to predict the degradation and wearing of the material under evaluation as well as to estimate the remaining operational life and to improve the maintenance plan of the vessel.
  • the number of heats undergone by a vessel during an ongoing campaign the estimates of the thickness of a refractory material and slag buildup, temperature measurements using the first sensor at certain locations and various heats using different refractory and molten materials as well as when the vessel is empty, operational parameters (including the residence time) and observations, and previous knowledge of the thickness of the refractory material, provide a data set that can be used to train these algorithms.
  • the customized algorithms are trained for each of the different zones of a predefined region of interest of vessel 12, their performance can be improved with additional estimations of the refractory thickness at different stages of the vessel's life.
  • the degradation of refractory material 14 as a function of the number of heats undergone by a vessel during an ongoing campaign for a plurality of scenarios and operational parameters or all the thickness estimation data of refractory material 14, collected over time may be used for training or model-building of one or more of the specific artificial intelligence algorithms.
  • data processing subsystem 26 may also provide a status of refractory material 14 comprising a level or rate of degradation of such material due to various factors, including operational wear, age, and presence of one or more types of molten material within, flaws, cracks, corrosion, and erosion of refractory material 14. Accordingly, data processing subsystem 26 may enable system 10 to estimate the remaining thickness of refractory material 14, which is useful to estimate the remaining operational life and to improve the maintenance plan of vessel 12.
  • system 10 may further comprise a software subsystem configured to enable a user to control one or more computer-based processors for handling the collected data.
  • This data handling includes measuring, storing, monitoring, recording, processing, mapping, visualizing, transferring, analyzing, tracking, and reporting of these data for calculating the risk of operating vessel 12 and to determine the presence of certain flaws and the remaining thickness of refractory material 14. Accordingly, an estimation of the overall health of vessel 12 might be obtained, even while vessel 12 is processing a molten material.
  • a software subsystem might be configured to monitor and control the system operations not only locally, but also remotely through a computer network or a cloud computing environment.
  • data processing subsystem 26 may further comprise a signal processing technique including data processing and image processing algorithms implemented by using one or a combination of more than one technique.
  • These techniques may include Fourier transform, spectral analysis, frequency- and time-domain response analyses, digital filtering, convolution and correlation, decimation and interpolation, adaptive signal processing, waveform analysis, and data windows and phase unwrapping for data processing; and time domain, back projection, delay and sum, synthetic aperture radar imaging, back propagation, inverse scattering, and super-resolution, either with or without the application of differential imaging, for image processing.
  • the signal processing technique may be selected according to a characteristic of the refractory material under evaluation, such as thickness, number of layers, type, and dimensions of the refractory material, and the type of molten material to be processed.
  • system 10 may further comprise at least one second sensor that can provide information as an input to data processing subsystem 26 to either improve machine learning-based mathematical model 28 to calculate the level of risk of operating vessel 12 or to estimate the remaining operational life and maintenance plan of vessel 12 once the level of risk of operating vessel 12 has been calculated.
  • the information provided by the at least one second sensor may replace or complement one or more input data included as part of the first set of data or the second set of data typically used as input to data processing subsystem 26.
  • the second sensor may include one or a combination of more than one of an ultrasound unit, a laser scanner, a LIDAR device, a radar, and a stereovision camera.
  • the information provided by the second sensor may include a surface profile of the internal walls of refractory material 14, obtained from measurements using a LIDAR or a laser scanning device.
  • the second sensor may provide the thickness of refractory material 14, obtained from a radar or multiple measurements obtained from a LIDAR or a laser scanner.
  • the second sensor may provide an estimate of the slag buildup on the internal walls of refractory material 14 obtained by using a radar.
  • the method for calculating a level of risk of operating a manufacturing vessel and estimating the remaining operational life of such vessel is operative to combine a plurality of data with a machine learning-based mathematical model to estimate the operational condition of the vessel and provide information to estimate the remaining operational life and to improve the maintenance plan of the vessel.
  • Figure 2 shows a schematic view of a method for calculating the level of risk of operating a manufacturing vessel while processing a molten material.
  • the information used may include data collected prior to, during, or after the operation of multiple vessels and regions of these vessels along with data related to a plurality of molten materials processed or to be processed. Then, a machine learning-based mathematical model is created to correlate these data and to determine a distribution of external temperature ranges of specific vessels according to a level of risk of operating the vessel or a level of penetration of molten material within the refractory material of the vessel under certain current or expected conditions and operational parameters.
  • the comparison of actual temperature measurements of the external surface of a particular vessel during operation and the corresponding pre-determined distribution of the external surface temperature ranges determined by the model allows to calculate the risk of operation, estimate the remaining operational life, and improve the maintenance plan of the vessel, in real time during operation of such vessel, according to the following steps:
  • Step 100 and Step 200 it is to be understood that these steps might need to be performed only during the initial set up of the machine learning-based mathematical model.
  • a variety of specific vessels may be modeled and measured to calculate the risk of operating each of these specific vessels and provide information to estimate the remaining operational life and to improve the maintenance plan of the vessel.
  • multiple assessments of a plurality of vessels may be performed starting at Step 300, with no need to go over steps 100 or 200 and without imposing any limitations or affecting the performance of the described method and the results obtained after applying such method.
  • step 100 those skilled in the art would realize that a plurality of techniques and methods, based on a variety of sensors, including acoustic, radar, LIDAR, laser, infrared, thermal, and stereovision sensors, can be used to collect relevant data related to a manufacturing vessel.
  • sensors including acoustic, radar, LIDAR, laser, infrared, thermal, and stereovision sensors, can be used to collect relevant data related to a manufacturing vessel.
  • steps above indicated can be correspondingly adjusted for a specific vessel and type of molten material, according to the specific machine learning-based algorithm used to create the machine learning-based mathematical model.
  • the thickness and a level or rate of degradation of such material due to various factors, including operational wear, age, and presence of molten material, flaws, cracks, and erosion might also be estimated.
  • multiple evaluations of the status of a material over time may be used to create trends to estimate such material degradation as well as forecast the remaining operational life and improve the maintenance plan of the vessel.

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EP24163212.4A 2023-11-24 2024-03-13 System und verfahren zur vorhersage der betriebssicherheit von gefässe Pending EP4560237A1 (de)

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