TWI643145B - Method and apparatus for estimating trend of product development market - Google Patents

Abstract

A method and device for estimating the wind direction of a product development market. Deconstructing existing products into multiple component projects to establish a hierarchy of decision-making factors. Based on the decision factor hierarchy framework, the hierarchical analysis method is used to obtain the decision-making scheme. The weights between the decision factors of each decision factor are read from the decision making scheme. The importance weights corresponding to each decision factor are read from the importance database. The cost value of each decision factor is calculated based on the weights and importance weights between the decision factors of each decision factor included in each of the plurality of project categories. Based on the cost values of each decision factor included in each item category, the average number and standard deviation of each item category are calculated, and then the ratio of each item category is obtained.

Description

Method and device for estimating wind direction of product development market

The present invention relates to a product development mechanism, and in particular to an estimation method and apparatus for a product development market wind direction.

Recently, many companies are facing product sales and business difficulties. In the fiercely competitive environment, in addition to the operating pressure of competitors in the same industry, it is still necessary to face the dilemma of product sales and business operations. The reasons for this are: (1) insufficient product differentiation; (2) weak sales channels; (3) Innovation pressures for new market players; (4) appealing to products "prices" rather than "values"; and (5) market-squeezing extrusion product innovation motives. The reasons all imply that product management needs to be specifically directed toward market demand. Focusing only on the functional specifications of the product itself, the demand for profitability in manufacturing costs, supply chain efficiency, and channel layout has been unable to shake off the fate of small profits. Therefore, companies have conceived how to think about the "commodity service" or "service goods" with creative and creative value. They are most likely to be behind closed doors and disparate from market demand. Even when the product prototype is conceived, the success of the product may have been decided.

The invention provides a method and a device for estimating the wind direction of a product development market, and develops a market-oriented design product to reduce the risk that the product is not accepted by the market.

The estimation method of the product development market wind direction of the invention comprises: deconstructing the existing product into a plurality of component items, thereby establishing a decision factor hierarchy framework, wherein the component items correspond to a plurality of decision factors; based on the decision factor hierarchy framework, using the hierarchical analysis method (Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP) obtains the decision-making scheme; reads the weights of the decision factors of the decision factors from the decision-making scheme; reads the importance weights of the corresponding decision factors from the importance database; Calculating the weight and importance weights between the decision factors of each decision factor, calculating the cost value of each decision factor; calculating the average and standard deviation of each item category based on the cost values of each decision factor included in each item category, In turn, the ratio of each item category is obtained.

The device for estimating the wind direction of the product development market of the present invention comprises: a storage device and a processor. The storage device includes a decision plan database and an importance database, and stores a plurality of code segments. The processor is coupled to the storage device. The processor executes the code segment to complete an estimation method for the product development market wind direction. The estimation method of the product development market wind direction includes: the processor deconstructs the existing product into multiple component projects, thereby establishing a decision factor hierarchy framework, and based on the decision factor hierarchy framework, using the hierarchical analysis method to obtain the decision scheme, and then storing the decision scheme to the decision A repository of programmes and a database of importance based on decision-making scenarios. The processor reads the weights between the decision factors of the plurality of decision factors in the decision making scheme, and reads the importance weights corresponding to the respective decision factors from the importance database, based on the respective decision factors included in each of the plurality of project categories Weights and importance weights between decision factors, calculating cost values of each decision factor, and calculating the average number and standard deviation of each item category based on the cost values of each decision factor included in each item category, thereby obtaining corresponding items of each item category The ratio.

In an embodiment of the invention, the processor establishes a plurality of main project factors based on the project categories to which the component items belong, and sets a plurality of decision factors included in each major project based on the project categories to which the component projects belong. .

In an embodiment of the invention, the processor adjusts the importance weights of the decision factors for the expected total cost, and the cost values of the decision factors are added to the expected total cost.

In an embodiment of the present invention, the processor is based on the quotient of the standard deviation and the average as the representative score of each item category, summing the representative scores of the item categories, and obtaining the total score, and based on the total score Calculate the ratio of each item category to the representative score of each item category.

In an embodiment of the invention, the item category includes a functional item, a non-functional item, and a service item.

Based on the above, the present invention can introduce a potential user preference viewpoint in the early stage of product development, making the product design closer to the market and reducing the risk that the product is not accepted by the market. Moreover, the cost consideration factor is set to control the product development project within the budget, and the subject is prevented from biasing toward high specification functions.

The above described features and advantages of the invention will be apparent from the following description.

Whether the product design is successful or not, the most critical verification is the degree of market acceptance, and ultimately the specific revenue. In other words, products that fail to make profits and benefits for the company, even if the technology is cutting-edge and the quality is excellent, is also a loss. The invention provides an estimation device and a method for the market direction of a product development market, which can introduce a potential user preference viewpoint at the initial stage of product development, make the product design closer to the market, and reduce the risk that the product is not accepted by the market.

1 is a schematic diagram of a product development market wind direction design framework in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention. Please refer to Figure 1. In the “Innovation-Driven Model Standards”, reference is made to the standard model of driving innovation as an innovation standard. This model standard product is regarded as a potential competitor in the future, and comprehensive evaluation of its product management strategy is effective. Sexuality, key technology research and development capabilities, market penetration, and organizational execution.

After that, the product prototype was formed according to the product of “Innovation Driven Model Standard”. That is, in the "new prototype", after referring to the functional specifications of the product obtained under the "Innovation Driven Model Standard", the Triz method is used to conceive innovative product functional specifications or prototype designs. The method of wisdom includes the following points. (1) Deconstructing goods: Disassembling goods into component combinations, converting goods into loosely coupled components, or increasing the agility of a certain component of a product. (2) Isolation of commodity components: removal of commodity benefits interfere with components, or isolated goods are indispensable but interfere with components. (3) Differentiating product quality: changing the product design to improve the quality of the component, improving the external environment affecting the commodity factor, making the components of the product meet the overall quality requirements, or making the product components function independent or complementary. (4) Smoothing the commodity components: analyzing the interaction mode between the product contact points and the components, changing the interaction mode of the commodity organization design to make it smooth, or designing the auxiliary commodity components to make the commodity organization smooth. (5) Dynamically motorizing commodity components: Adjusting the deployment of commodity components enables the conversion of operating modes according to the external environment, dismantling the poorly functioning components of the products into separate but flexible interactions, or improving component operations in special commodity models. Degree of freedom, etc. (6) Prevention of abuse of commodity components: Analyze the use patterns of commodities to identify potential abuse factors, provide certain utility or action for commodity components for the needs that cannot be fully satisfied, or establish a sense of responsibility of commodity users and reasonable use of educational users.

The new prototypes include "commodities" and "services." "Products" have "Product Specifications" and their "Usage Mode". The "service" has a "service mechanism" and its "service model". After the functional specifications of the new prototypes are formed, the products and their usage patterns are defined according to the product specifications, and the service and service modes are defined according to the service mechanism. That is, the new prototype is the original product plus the item to be adjusted (evaluation project content).

Further, the "potential customer group sampling" is performed from the "target market potential customer group" obtained by the persona based target group evaluation method to obtain the user group of the same attribute, and then from the user group. sampling. In addition, the "experimental design" was conducted to obtain the questionnaire, and the questionnaire was used to "collect the potential customer group preference" as the basis for the "corrected new product design", and then the "experimental design" was re-based according to the adjusted specifications. Market-oriented "finalization of new product specifications", followed by product lifecycle management. In the three stages of "new prototype", "experimental design" and "collecting potential customer preference", the group decision evaluation method was adopted and the cost factor was added to control the product development project within the budget.

Using the above-mentioned product development market wind direction design framework, the company provides enterprises to fully understand the products from the perspective of consumer demand and service, from the creative idea, the prototype design, the manufacturing, to the marketing and marketing activities, and narrow the subjective evaluation of the product providers. The gap between consumers and other commodity cognitions, to find out the appropriate market positioning of the goods, so that consumers are willing to locate here, or in the market segment, to stimulate the purchase impulse, and then generate trading behavior. Therefore, in order to achieve this goal, the commodity provider must solicit opinions from different sources, and specifically point out the goods designed and introduced at the beginning, the commodities envisaged, and then compare the self-commodities with the relevant competitors through the group decision-making mechanism. Find out the appropriate market size, pricing and consumer behavior of the commodity, and consider the basis for the strategy of entering the market for its own products and the management of subsequent products. Therefore, it is proposed to guide the development of product specifications by market dynamics, as the basis for estimating the wind direction of new product development users, focusing on the implementation of new products and thinking about the process of prototype design, and then propose specific implementation mechanisms, including designing product function evaluation forms. Provide practical references to enhance their product competition.

2 is a block diagram of an apparatus for estimating the wind direction of a product development market in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention. Referring to FIG. 2, the product development market wind direction estimating device 200 includes a processor 210, a display device 220, and a storage device 230. The processor 210 is coupled to the display device 220 and the storage device 230.

The processor 210 is, for example, a central processing unit (CPU), a physical processing unit (PPU), a programmable microprocessor (Microprocessor), an embedded control chip, and a digital signal processor (Digital Signal). Processor, DSP), Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASIC) or other similar devices.

The display device 220 can be any type of display, such as a cathode ray tube (CRT) display, a liquid crystal display (LCD), a plasma display (Plasma Display), a light emitting diode (Light- Emitting Diode, LED) display, Field Emission Display (FED) and so on. The display device 220 can also be a touch screen combined with a touch module.

The storage device 230 is, for example, any type of fixed or removable random access memory (RAM), read-only memory (ROM), flash memory (Flash memory), hard Disc or other similar device or a combination of these devices. The storage device 230 stores a plurality of code segments, and the code segments are executed by the processor 210 after being installed to implement the estimation method of the market development direction of the following product development.

In the present embodiment, the storage device 230 includes a decision plan database 231 and an importance database 232. However, in other embodiments, the number of databases may be increased or decreased as appropriate. The decision plan database 231 is used to store a decision plan obtained by using the group decision evaluation method based on the "Analytic Hierarchy Process" (AHP). The importance database 232 is used to store the importance weights corresponding to the decision factors of the decision factor hierarchy framework.

In the AHP operation process, first describe the problem, then discriminate the influencing factors and establish the hierarchical structure, and design the questionnaire project. Then, according to the data collected by the questionnaire, find out the relative importance of the decision attributes among the different classes, and then establish a pairwise comparison. The matrix is used to calculate the matrix eigenvalues and eigenvectors. The resulting data is corrected by the consistency check and the hierarchical structure consistency check, and the weights of each indicator can be calculated to help select the most appropriate decision-making scheme.

For example, the product development market wind direction estimation device 200 provides a user interface to the display device 220 for decision makers to set a plurality of parameters. That is, the decision-making plan selection team established by the decision-making body (the main initiator of the decision-making process evaluation) specifies multiple participants in the decision-making process and sets the effectiveness of the decision-making of each participant, and specifies the decision-making scheme according to policy preferences. Cognitively important values (ie, policy preference weights), and the set data is stored in the corresponding database. In addition, the authorized (designated) participants will also set the importance value of the decision factors of each level for the attributes of the decision target, and store the set data in the corresponding database.

The estimation device 200 with the above product development market trend is further described below to further explain the estimation method of the product development market wind direction.

3 is a flow chart of a method for estimating the wind direction of a product development market in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention. Referring to FIG. 3, in step S305, the processor 210 deconstructs the existing product into a plurality of component items, thereby establishing a decision factor hierarchy framework. These component items correspond to multiple decision factors included in the decision factor hierarchy framework. Here, the existing product is disassembled into multiple component projects based on multiple project categories (eg, functional, non-functional, and serviceable) using a smart method. In the case of mobile phones, it is disassembled into parts, buttons, screen size, handset position, call quality, mobile phone size, mobile phone shape, mobile phone repair, manual, 7*24 customer service and other components.

4 is a schematic diagram of a decision factor hierarchy framework in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention. Referring to FIG. 4, three item types, such as functionality, non-functionality, and serviceability, will be described as an example. The processor 210 establishes a plurality of main project factors based on the item categories to which the component items belong. The main project factors F, NF, and S are functional projects, non-functional projects, and service projects. Next, the decision factors included in each main item are set based on the item category to which each component item belongs. The main project factor F includes decision factors F1～F3, etc. The main project factor NF includes decision factors NF1～NF3, etc. The main project factors S include decision factors S1～S3.

In step S310, based on the decision factor hierarchy framework, the decision scheme is obtained by using the hierarchical analysis method. The group of experts with practical experience in different fields is represented by the operation management group, representing the interests of consumers and stakeholders (interests), and the influence of different scale values can be given among experts according to their roles. For the commodity positioning model (including the target market), the scale factor of the decision factor is given by the five-scale method of Likert Scale, and the function evaluation of the product for the project category—functionality, non-functionality, and serviceability Fill in the form, etc., and evaluate the importance of the product. To determine the weight calculation between the various decision factors under the main project factor.

For example, the storage device 230 further includes a personnel database that stores a list of a plurality of decision makers, a plurality of decision weights corresponding to the plurality of decision makers, and a plurality of policy preferences corresponding to the plurality of decision schemes. Weight; a hierarchical framework database that stores the decision factor hierarchy obtained by step S305; a decision factor database that stores a plurality of importance values of a plurality of decision factors corresponding to each decision maker; The library stores the sequence data of each decision maker, and the sequence data includes the respective sequence values of the plurality of decision factors at the end of the decision factor hierarchy for the plurality of decision schemes.

The processor 210 obtains a plurality of decision weights corresponding to the plurality of decision makers and a plurality of policy preference weights corresponding to the plurality of decision schemes, wherein the number of the decision makers is equal to the number of the decision schemes. Decision maker p's decision weight Expressed as: , .

Here, it is assumed that the decision schemes #1 to #4 are determined and their respective importance values are 1, 2, 3, and 2, respectively. After that, the policy preference weights of the decision plan are calculated according to the importance value of the given decision plan. . For example, the policy preference weights for each decision plan #1~#4 Divide the value of each importance by the sum of the importance values of all decision plans #1~#4.

Then, from the decision factor database, multiple importance values of multiple decision factors corresponding to each decision maker are obtained. The weights between the decision factors of each decision factor are calculated based on these importance values. For example, for the primary project factor of the first-order in the decision factor hierarchy framework, the importance values of all the major project factors corresponding to all decision makers are summed to obtain the first-order total, and, in the decision factor hierarchy In the first order, the total importance values of the jth main project factors corresponding to all decision makers are summed to obtain the sum of the factors; after that, the total sum of the factors is divided by the first order sum, and the decision factor is obtained. The weight between the decision factors of the jth main project factor on the first order in the hierarchical framework. Here, the above j is an integer.

For the plurality of sub-decision factors included under the j-th decision factor of the i-th level in the decision factor hierarchy framework, the importance values of all the decision factors corresponding to all decision makers are summed to obtain the sub-decision The sum of the classes, and, in the jth decision factor of the i-th level in the decision factor hierarchy framework, the importance values of the k-th sub-decision factors corresponding to all decision makers are summed to obtain the sum of the sub-factors After that, the sub-factor sum is divided by the sub-level sum, and the inter-factor weights of the k-th sub-decision factor of the j-th decision factor of the i-th level in the decision factor hierarchy are obtained. Here, the above i, j, and k are integers.

Then, the sequence data corresponding to each decision maker is obtained from the sequence database to extract the respective sequence values of the plurality of decision factors of the last stage. Then, based on the decision effectiveness weight, the weight of the decision factors of each decision factor, the policy preference weight, and the specific order value of each decision factor, the corresponding reference scores are respectively calculated for each decision plan. Determining the priority order of the decision scheme based on the obtained plurality of reference scores corresponding to the decision scheme.

The decision scores for each decision maker to calculate each decision plan are obtained by the following formula: And ; among them, a decision score representing the qth decision plan corresponding to the pth decision maker; Representing a sequence set, the sequence set includes a plurality of sequence values of the plurality of decision factors included by the pth decision maker for the qth decision plan and in the last stage of the decision factor hierarchy frame; Representing a first weight matrix, the first weight matrix includes weights between a plurality of decision factors of the plurality of decision factors included in the last step of the decision factor hierarchy, that is, the plurality of decision factors of the qth decision maker; Representing the second weight matrix, the second weight matrix includes the decision factors of the pth decision maker for the qth decision scheme in the decision factor hierarchy, and each decision factor corresponding to the plurality of decision factors included in the hierarchy 1~N-1 Weight between multiple decision factors.

Based on the decision maker's corresponding decision weights and the decision scores obtained by each decision maker corresponding to the qth decision scheme, the calculated geometric mean is obtained by the following formula: And ; among them, Representing the geometric mean, n represents the number of decision makers, and P _p represents the weight of decision making power of the pth decision maker.

Based on the geometric mean and the policy preference weights corresponding to the qth decision scheme, the calculated reference score is obtained by the following formula: ; among them The policy preference weights representing the qth decision plan.

After the best decision plan is obtained, the decision plan is stored in the decision plan database 231. In step S315, the processor 210 reads the decision plan database 231 to read the decision factor weights of the decision factors from the decision plan.

And, in step S320, the processor 210 reads the importance weights corresponding to the respective decision factors from the importance database 232. For example, the subjects are filled in the importance weights of the various decision factors, and then the data is stored in the importance database 232. Thereafter, in step S325, the processor 210 calculates the cost value of each decision factor based on the inter-decision factor weight and importance weight of each decision factor included in each item category.

FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of a product function evaluation system in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention. In this embodiment, the interface 500 provides the subject to fill in the importance weights of the various decision factors. In the interface 500, the total estimated cost is 100. The currently displayed screen is a page corresponding to the functional item, and the page includes three decision factors of “remote control”, “power consumption” and “volume”. After the subject fills in the importance weights of the decision factors, the processor 210 automatically stores the importance weights into the importance database 232, and extracts the "remote control" and "power consumption" into the decision plan database 231. And the weights of the decision factors corresponding to the three decision factors of the volume, and then calculate the cost values of the three decision factors, and add the three cost values to obtain the functional cost. In this embodiment, the functional cost is 40. However, this is merely an example and is not limited thereto. The number of decision factors for a functional project may be less or more, and the component items corresponding to the decision factor may also be other projects.

In the evaluation project, in addition to the function of the product to be developed, it is necessary to include the competitor's function but not in the product to be developed, in order to confirm whether the function to be discarded is appropriate. In order to avoid the subject's preference for high-standard functions, there is a cost to control the product development project within the budget. After adjusting the importance weight of each decision factor, the cost balance must be recalculated so that the subject must be under cost constraints. Give a reasonable weight of importance.

Table 1 shows an example of the product function evaluation form.  <TABLE border="1" borderColor="#000000" width="85%"><TBODY><tr><td> Sample A </td><td> Total expected cost 100 </td><td> 001 </td></tr><tr><td> Functional Projects (F1~Fm) </td></tr><tr><td> Decision Factors</td><td> Decision Factors Inter-weight </td><td> importance weight</td><td> cost value</td></tr><tr><td> F1 </td><td><img wi="38" He="33" file="02_image031.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td><td><img wi="34" he="33" file="02_image033.jpg" Img-format="jpg"></img></td><td><img wi="38" he="33" file="02_image035.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img> ×<img wi="34" he="33" file="02_image036.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td></tr><tr><td> F2 </td ><td><img wi="39" he="33" file="02_image037.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td><td><img wi="36" he ="33" file="02_image039.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td><td><img wi="39" he="33" file="02_image041.jpg" img -format="jpg"></img>×<img wi="36" he="33" file="02_image039.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td></tr ><tr><td> Fm </td><td><img wi="39" he="33" file="02_image042.jpg" i Mg-format="jpg"></img></td><td><img wi="36" he="33" file="02_image044.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img> </td><td><img wi="39" he="33" file="02_image046.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img>×<img wi="36" he="33 " file="02_image044.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td></tr><tr><td> Functional cost: <img wi="237" he="41" File="02_image047.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td></tr><tr><td> Non-functional projects (NF1~NFn) </td></tr> <tr><td> Decision Factor</td><td> Weight between Decision Factors</td><td> Importance Weight</td><td> Cost Value</td></tr><tr>< Td> NF1 </td><td><img wi="42" he="33" file="02_image049.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td><td><img Wi="39" he="33" file="02_image051.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td><td><img wi="42" he="33" file= "02_image049.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img>×<img wi="39" he="33" file="02_image053.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img>< /td></tr><tr><td> NF2 </td><td><img wi="44" he="33" file="02_image054.jpg" img-format="jpg"></ Img></td><td><img wi="41" he="33" file="02_image056.jpg" img-format="jpg"> </img></td><td><img wi="44" he="33" file="02_image054.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img>×<img wi="41" He="33" file="02_image058.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td></tr><tr><td> NFn </td><td><img wi= "41" he="33" file="02_image059.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td><td><img wi="38" he="33" file="02_image061 .jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td><td><img wi="41" he="33" file="02_image059.jpg" img-format="jpg">< /img>×<img wi="38" he="33" file="02_image063.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td></tr><tr><td> Functional cost: <img wi="257" he="41" file="02_image064.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td></tr><tr><td> Service Sex Project (S1～Sp) </td></tr><tr><td> Decision Factor</td><td> Weight between Decision Factors</td><td> Importance Weight </td><td > Cost value</td></tr><tr><td> S1 </td><td><img wi="33" he="30" file="02_image066.jpg" img-format="jpg "></img></td><td><img wi="30" he="30" file="02_image068.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td><td ><img wi="33" he="30" file="02_image066.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img>×<img wi="30 " he="30" file="02_image070.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td></tr><tr><td> S2 </td><td><img wi ="36" he="30" file="02_image071.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td><td><img wi="33" he="30" file=" 02_image073.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td><td><img wi="36" he="30" file="02_image071.jpg" img-format="jpg"> </img>×<img wi="33" he="30" file="02_image075.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td></tr><tr><td> Sp </td><td><img wi="34" he="33" file="02_image076.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td><td><img wi= "31" he="33" file="02_image078.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td><td><img wi="34" he="33" file="02_image076 .jpg" img-format="jpg"></img>×<img wi="31" he="33" file="02_image080.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td ></tr><tr><td> Service cost: <img wi="230" he="41" file="02_image081.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td> </tr></TBODY></TABLE>

Functional cost The sum of the cost values of the m decision factors included in the functional project. The cost value of the decision factor of a functional project is the weight between decision factors Importance weights taken from the importance database 232 The product of. Non-functional cost The sum of the cost values of the n decision factors included in the non-functional project. The cost value of the decision factor of a non-functional project is the weight between decision factors Importance weights taken from the importance database 232 The product of. Service cost The sum of the cost values of the p decision factors included in the service project. The cost value of the decision factor of the service project is the weight between the decision factors. Importance weights taken from the importance database 232 The product of.

Thereafter, in step S330, the processor 210 calculates the average number and standard deviation of each item category based on the cost values of the respective decision factors included in each item category, and further obtains the ratio value corresponding to each item category.

Specifically, the pre-test is performed on the product function evaluation form by the selection expert, and after the importance weight of each decision factor is obtained, the weight calculation work can be performed. First, expand the project to indicate the category of the project to which it belongs, such as functional projects, non-functional projects, and service projects. Next, the average number and standard deviation of the plurality of cost values corresponding to the plurality of decision factors included in each item category are calculated. Then, the quotient based on the standard deviation and the average is used as the representative score for each item category. For example, if one of the project categories (for example, a functional project) includes m decision factors, then the average of the corresponding m cost values is calculated. Standard deviation . After the average Standard deviation Business as a representative score for a functional project . By analogy, the representative scores of non-functional projects and service projects are obtained. After that, the representative scores of each item category are added, and the total score S _{all is obtained} . Then, based on the total score and the representative score of each item category, the ratio of each item category is calculated, as shown in Table 2.

Table 2 shows a sample of the product function evaluation spreadsheet.  <TABLE border="1" borderColor="#000000" width="85%"><TBODY><tr><td> Sample A </td><td> Total expected cost 100 </td></tr> <tr><td> Project Category</td><td> Average</td><td> Standard Deviation</td><td> Represents Score</td><td> Proportion </td></ Tr><tr><td> Functional Project F </td><td><img wi="30" he="30" file="TWI643145B_D0026.tif" img-format="jpg"></img> </td><td><img wi="55" he="30" file="TWI643145B_D0027.tif" img-format="jpg"></img></td><td><img wi=" 131" he="30" file="02_image107.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td><td><img wi="90" he="30" file="02_image109. Jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td></tr><tr><td> Non-functional project NF </td><td><img wi="39" he=" 30" file="02_image111.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td><td><img wi="63" he="30" file="02_image113.jpg" img-format ="jpg"></img></td><td><img wi="156" he="30" file="02_image115.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td ><td><img wi="98" he="30" file="02_image117.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td></tr><tr><td> Service Sex project S </td><td><img wi="28" he="30" file="02_image1 19.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td><td><img wi="54" he="30" file="02_image121.jpg" img-format="jpg"> </img></td><td><img wi="126" he="30" file="02_image123.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td><td>< Img wi="86" he="30" file="02_image125.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td></tr><tr><td> total score</td ><td><img wi="161" he="33" file="02_image127.jpg" img-format="jpg"></img></td></tr></TBODY></TABLE >

In addition, the importance weight of each decision factor can be further adjusted for the expected total cost. For example, assuming that the sum of the functional cost, the non-functional cost, and the service cost finally calculated by the processor 210 exceeds the expected total cost, the processor 210 issues a prompt to inform the subject to reallocate the decision factors. The importance weights are such that the cost values of these decision factors are summed up to equal the expected total cost. In addition, the importance weight of each of these decision factors may also be adjusted by the processor 210 according to the input of the subject.

After the pre-test of the expert evaluation form, the “potential customer group” is used to conduct “potential customer sampling” to sample users of different target groups to conduct multiple rounds of user-level product function evaluation (number of times) Time depends on the size of the budget). After that, the average number of evaluations by the user for each item category is multiplied by the proportion of the corresponding expert's pre-test, and then sorted to know the proportion of sample development resources.

That is, the importance weight of each decision factor is first filled by experts to obtain the proportion of functional items, non-functional items, and service items. After that, the importance weight of each decision factor is filled in by multiple users of the sample. The average of the cost values obtained by each of the decision factors by different users is multiplied by the ratio obtained by the expert evaluation, thereby obtaining the input ratio of each decision factor. After that, the proportion of the development resources of the sample can be clearly known through the ordering of the input factors of the decision factors.

In summary, the present invention grasps the user's preference and fundamentally solves the hidden cause of the disconnection between product design and market demand, and introduces potential user preference viewpoints in the early stage of product development, so that product design is closer to market demand, and the key to research and development can be avoided. , causing sunk costs and losing market opportunities. At the same time, cost considerations have been added to control the product development project within the budget.

Although the present invention has been disclosed in the above embodiments, it is not intended to limit the present invention, and any one of ordinary skill in the art can make some changes and refinements without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. The scope of the invention is defined by the scope of the appended claims.

200‧‧‧ Estimation device for product development market wind direction

210‧‧‧ processor

220‧‧‧ display device

230‧‧‧ storage device

231‧‧‧ Decision-making programme database

232‧‧‧Important database

F, NF, S‧‧‧ main project factors

F1～F3, NF1～NF3, S1～S3‧‧‧ decision factors

500‧‧‧ interface

S305～S330‧‧‧Product development market wind direction estimation method steps

1 is a schematic diagram of a product development market wind direction design framework in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention. 2 is a block diagram of an apparatus for estimating the wind direction of a product development market in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention. 3 is a flow chart of a method for estimating the wind direction of a product development market in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention. 4 is a schematic diagram of a decision factor hierarchy framework in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of a product function evaluation system in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention.

Claims (10)

A method for estimating the market direction of a product development market includes: destructuring an existing product into a plurality of component items through a processor, thereby establishing a decision factor hierarchy framework, wherein the component items correspond to a plurality of decision factors; The decision factor hierarchy framework uses a hierarchical analysis method to obtain a decision scheme; the processor reads the weights of the decision factors of the decision factors from the decision scheme; and reads the data from an importance database through the processor Taking respective importance weights of the respective decision factors; calculating, by the processor, the weights of the decision factors and the importance weights of the decision factors respectively included in each of the plurality of item categories a cost value; and calculating, by the processor, an average number and a standard deviation of each of the item categories based on cost values of each of the plurality of decision factors included in each of the item categories, thereby obtaining each of the The proportion of the item category. The method for estimating the market direction of the product development market as described in claim 1, wherein the step of establishing the hierarchy of the decision factor comprises: establishing, by the processor, a plurality of main items based on the item categories to which the component items belong a factor; and setting, by the processor, the decision factors included in each of the main items based on the item categories to which the component items belong. The method for estimating the market direction of the product development market as described in claim 1 further includes: adjusting, by the processor, the importance weight of each of the decision factors for an expected total cost, wherein the decision factors are The cost value is added to the expected total cost. The method for estimating the market direction of a product development market as described in claim 1, wherein calculating the average of each of the item categories and the standard deviation, thereby obtaining the ratio corresponding to each of the item categories The step of: obtaining, by the processor, a representative score of each of the item categories based on the quotient of the standard deviation and the average; obtaining, by the processor, the representative score of each of the item categories And adding a total score; and calculating, by the processor, the ratio of each of the item categories based on the total score and the representative score of each of the item categories. For example, the estimation method of the product development market direction described in the first application of the patent scope includes the functional items, the non-functional items, and the service items. An apparatus for estimating the wind direction of a product development market includes: a storage device including a decision plan database and an importance database, and storing a plurality of code segments; and a processor coupled to the storage device, The processor executes the code segments to complete a product development market wind direction estimation method, and the product development market wind direction The estimation method comprises: destructing an existing product into a plurality of component items, thereby establishing a decision factor hierarchy framework, and obtaining a decision scheme by using a hierarchical analysis method based on the decision factor hierarchy framework, and then the decision scheme is obtained Storing to the decision plan database and establishing the importance database based on the decision plan; the processor reads the weights of the decision factors of the plurality of decision factors from the decision plan, and reads from the importance database Calculating the importance weight of each of the decision factors, calculating the cost value of each of the decision factors based on the respective weights of the decision factors and the importance weights of the decision factors respectively included in the plurality of item categories, and based on For each cost value of each of the decision factors included in each of the item categories, an average number and a standard deviation of each of the item categories are calculated, thereby obtaining a ratio corresponding to each of the item categories. An apparatus for estimating a product development market direction as described in claim 6 wherein the processor establishes a plurality of main project factors based on the item categories to which the component items belong, and is based on each of the component items The project category sets the decision factors included in each of these major projects. An apparatus for estimating a product development market direction as described in claim 6 wherein the processor adjusts the importance weights of the decision factors for an expected total cost, and the cost value of the decision factors is increased. The total cost is the total expected. An apparatus for estimating the market direction of a product development market as described in claim 6 wherein the processor is based on the quotient of the standard deviation and the average a representative score of the item categories, summing the representative scores of each of the item categories, and obtaining a total score, and calculating each based on the total score and the representative score of each of the item categories The ratio of these item categories. The device for estimating the market direction of the product development market described in claim 6 wherein the item categories include functional items, non-functional items, and service items.