JPH0843545A - Rainfall prediction system - Google Patents

Abstract

PURPOSE:To provide a system which can predict a rainfall in a limited narrow region. CONSTITUTION:On the basis of data from a radar site 20, a plurality of rainfall movement vectors are computed. A region which is close to a prediction region is selected to be used as rainfall information on an object region. In addition, a central processor 22 computes a rainfall movement vector inside a radar monitoring region. The rainfall movement vector is distributed to every object region, it is extrapolated in every region, and rainfall information on its own region is obtained. Thereby, it is possible to exactly predict a rainfall in a narrow region. In addition, it is possible to deal with an increase in the number of distribution stations.

Description

Detailed Description of the Invention

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention collects information observed by radar rain gauges and ground rain gauges scattered in various places, predicts the amount of rainfall movement and the movement time, and outputs the prediction result. Related to the rainfall forecast system to display.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Narrow area rainfall radar used in the sewer field, Amedas of the Japan Meteorological Agency, River Information System (FRIC
When predicting rainfall based on rainfall information obtained from a system that observes rainfall in detail, such as in S), the advancing model is used or the rainfall area is tracked by a rain zone tracking method. Is common. In these methods, a "movement vector" representing the moving direction and moving speed of the rain area is calculated, and the movement of the rain area is predicted by moving the rain area in the movement vector direction by the predicted time. In addition to the direction of movement, development and attenuation of rain areas may be considered.

On the other hand, in a rainwater drainage facility in an urbanized area, it is necessary to accurately predict a large amount of rainwater flowing into a sewer pipe and to operate a rainwater drainage pump, a storage pipe, etc. in a timely manner. Therefore, as a rainfall forecast, a forecast up to about 30 minutes ahead is required in real time. For this reason, the rain forecasting algorithm must operate in real time and deliver the latest forecast value to the rainwater drainage facilities scattered in the basin.

Prior arts relating to these rainfall prediction systems are disclosed in JP-A-63-313088, JP-A-5-307080 and JP-A-5-307080.
-134056, JP-A-63-128283, JP-A-63-164173
It is shown in Japanese Patent Publication No.

[0005]

In the above-mentioned prior art, the rain area measured by the radar rain gauge is represented by one representative point, and therefore, there is only one movement vector. For this reason, it is not possible to accurately know the rainfall information of the limited narrow prediction target area.

An object of the present invention is to make it possible to accurately know the rainfall information of a limited narrow prediction target area, and to utilize it as the operation support and control information of the rainwater drainage pump equipment in the area. To provide.

[0007]

Means for Solving the Problems A rainfall prediction system according to the present invention comprises means for creating rainfall intensity data of a mesh rainfall distribution from received electric energy transmitted from a radar site, and a plurality of the rainfall intensity data having different measurement times. In the rainfall prediction system, which comprises means for calculating a rainfall movement vector based on, and means for extrapolating the rainfall movement vector, wherein the movement of the rain area is predicted by the extrapolated rainfall movement vector, the rainfall movement vector As a calculation means, a plurality of rainfall movement vectors are calculated by comparing the rainfall movement direction at a point where the rainfall intensity is higher than the surroundings in the rainfall intensity data with other rainfall intensity data having different measurement times. Of the plurality of extrapolated rainfall movement vectors obtained by extrapolating each of the plurality of rainfall movement vectors, The distance between the measuring target area what is closest, characterized in that it comprises means for selecting as rainfall motion vector of the prediction target area.

As the rainfall movement vector selection means,
A means for selecting, from among the plurality of extrapolated rainfall movement vectors, the closest distance between the end point of the vector and the prediction target area as the rainfall movement vector of the prediction target area, or prediction for a plurality of extrapolated rainfall movement vectors It is desirable to provide a unit that selects the shortest perpendicular from the target area as the rainfall movement vector of the prediction target area.

As the rainfall movement vector calculation means,
In the rainfall intensity data of the mesh rainfall distribution, points with higher rainfall intensity compared to the surrounding areas are compared for multiple rainfall intensity data with different measurement times, and the points with the closest distance between the data are connected to move each other. It is desirable to provide a means for calculating the rainfall movement vector as the direction.

The rainfall prediction system of the present invention also comprises a center processing unit for creating a rainfall distribution in an observation area based on a signal transmitted in real time from a radar site and calculating a plurality of rainfall movement vectors. The plurality of rainfall movement vectors calculated by the treatment device are distributed to the monitoring control device of the water treatment facility such as the rainwater drainage pump station, the sewage treatment plant, and the rainwater storage facility which are scattered through the communication network, and the monitoring control device performs the rainfall movement. It is a rainfall prediction system configured to obtain a rainfall amount and a rainfall prediction time of the water treatment facility by extrapolating a vector, wherein the received power amount transmitted from a radar site is used as rainfall intensity in the center processing device. Radar signal processing means for converting and creating rainfall intensity data of mesh rainfall distribution, and rainfall data class for storing the obtained rainfall intensity data Means, means for calculating a plurality of rainfall movement vectors by referring to the stored rainfall amount data, and the obtained rainfall movement vectors and the rainfall amount data stored in the rainfall amount storing means to the monitoring control device of the water treatment facility. It is characterized by having a delivery means for delivering.

The rainfall prediction system of the present invention further receives rainfall information from rainfall observation networks such as a rainfall radar and a surface rain gauge, and outputs it to a graphic display device together with topographic map information which is digitalized and stored. In the term prediction system having means for performing rainfall prediction processing using the received rainfall information, a rainfall movement vector is calculated in the course of the rainfall prediction processing, and displayed on a graphic display device together with the received rainfall amount. And the function of extrapolating and displaying the rainfall movement vector by the movement amount corresponding to the prediction time, and the distance from the target point for which the rainfall amount is to be predicted is the closest from the end points of the extrapolated rainfall movement vector. And the function to display it so that it can be distinguished from other rainfall movement vectors, and the end point of the selected extrapolated rainfall movement vector The function to mark the rainfall information display part of the starting point of the vector after parallel movement and the rainfall displayed at the marked part, A display device having a function of adopting and displaying as a predicted value is provided.

According to the present invention, after the movement vector is calculated by the rainfall prediction model based on the rainfall amount information obtained on-line and in real time, the movement vector is rained on each rainwater drainage facility requiring the rainfall amount prediction value. It is delivered together with the observed values of the above, and at the destination terminal, the movement vector that passes through or near the drainage area of the equipment is regarded as the movement vector to the own drainage area, and the rainfall observation value on the starting point side of the movement vector is predicted. A value system can be constructed.

[0013]

By distributing only the movement vector to each drainage facility in this way, the amount of data to be distributed can be reduced as well as the amount of calculation as a rainfall prediction model is reduced.

In each drainage facility, since the rainfall forecast value of the own drainage area can be obtained by a simple method, the rainwater inflow forecasting model which requires the rainfall forecast value in real time,
Excellent as input information to control system and driving support system.
In addition, since the movement vectors of the entire area are distributed to each drainage facility, by displaying these, it is possible to intuitively present the movement of the rain area to the eyes of a person on one screen.

[0015]

Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings.

FIG. 2 is a schematic overall configuration diagram of a rainfall prediction / rainwater drainage support system in a sewer. The radar site 20 is usually installed in one or two places where it is not easily affected by a shield such as a mountaintop or a tall building. In the center station 25, the wide area communication line network 21 from the radar site to the public line etc.
Through, the central processing unit 22 receives the rainfall information transmitted in real time, performs signal processing and data processing, and calculates a movement vector based on these. Further, the obtained rainfall information and movement vector are used as the rainfall information terminal 2
In addition to displaying the topographic map information on 15, the information is delivered to the water treatment facilities such as the scattered rainwater drainage pump station 24, the sewage treatment plant 27, and the rainwater storage facility 26 through the wide area communication network 23. At each water treatment facility of the delivery destination, the monitoring control system 28
Information received at the control of equipment such as pumps and gates,
Used as driving support information.

FIG. 1 illustrates the entire processing flow of the present invention. At the radar site 20, the amount of received power of the reflection (echo) of the radar beam emitted by the radar device 11 due to raindrops.
The communication processing device 12 transmits (Pr) to the central processing device (center processing device) 22 of the center station 25 via the wide area communication network 21. In the central processing unit 22, the received power amount (Pr) is received in the communication processing 13 and the radar signal processing 1
At 4, convert to rainfall intensity (Rr). Here, the radar signal processing includes a solution process of a radar equation, a radar synthesizing process,
It is a process consisting of polar → Cartesian coordinate conversion and the like. Rainfall intensity (R
r) The data is stored in the rainfall data file 15.
The rainfall data file manages the present value and history of rainfall intensity (Rr) data. A movement vector is calculated in the movement vector calculation process 16 with reference to the rainfall data file. The movement vector calculation process is calculated by a method using an advection model, a method described later, or the like. The current value of the rainfall data and the movement vector are distributed in real time to the monitoring control system 28 of each pump station, processing site, and storage facility through the wide area communication network 23 by the distribution process 17. In the monitoring control system, the received rainfall data current value and movement vector are received by the reception process 18, and passed to the rainfall information, the rainfall prediction display process 19 and the rainfall prediction process 111. In the rainfall prediction processing 111, the rainfall prediction value of the drainage area shared by the own equipment is obtained based on the movement vector. The rainfall prediction value is calculated by the inflow prediction processing 11
2. The rainfall information is passed to the rainfall prediction display processing 19. In the rainfall information / precipitation prediction display processing 19, the topographic map data 110 of the self-drainage area, the current rainfall amount information, the movement vector, and the predicted rainfall amount are input and displayed and output to a display means such as a CRT or a liquid crystal display. In addition, in the inflow prediction process 112, in addition to the rainfall prediction value, various data measured by the monitoring control of the own equipment such as the water level and flow rate of the drains and pump wells, the operating state of the equipment such as the pump and the gate, and the like. Predict the amount of rainwater that will flow into the facility. The predicted value is the driving support process 1
13. Used for rainwater drainage and storage amount control 114. The driving support processing is intended to display the guidance on a display means such as a CRT or a display to support the driving operation of the operator. In the rainwater drainage and storage amount control processing, the inflow predicted value is mainly fed to the control loop. It is used as a forward term to directly and automatically control the plant.

Next, a detailed processing flow of the movement vector calculation processing 16 will be described with reference to FIG. This processing is started in a cycle, and the moving speed and movement of the feature points obtained by filtering the rainfall information (rainfall intensity) converted into the rainfall intensity (Rr) data in the radar signal processing 14 with a quadric surface. The movement vector is calculated by tracking the direction. The filter value is calculated according to the equation (1) using the size of n × m mesh of rainfall intensity as the filter size.

[0019]

[Equation 1]

Where

[0021]

[Equation 2]

[0022]

(Equation 3)

[0023]

[Equation 4]

[0024]

(Equation 5)

[0025]

(Equation 6)

Expression (1) is an expression in which the distribution of rainfall intensity at the point (i, j) is filtered by a quadric surface in the vicinity (i + x, j + y) of the point (i, j). Of these, C20 (i, j) is x ^{2 at the} point (i, j).
Is the filter coefficient of the term, and similarly C11 (i, j) is x
The filter coefficient of the y term, C02 (i, j) is the filter coefficient of the y ² term, C10 (i, j) is the filter coefficient of the x term, C
00 (i, j) is a constant term. The filter coefficient is determined for each point (i, j) according to the equations (2) to (6). In other words, in the Hermite orthonormal system, the second order terms are expanded. Here, σ is a constant representing the strength of the filter.

This process is executed in steps 31 to 38. First, in process 31, a filter constant is calculated. In process 32, the rainfall intensity obtained in radar process 14
(Rr) data is read from the rainfall data file 15. In the process 33, the rainfall information obtained in the process 32 is filtered according to the equation (1). The filtering is executed for each division range (hereinafter referred to as a filter element) obtained by dividing the rainfall intensity (Rr) data in n × m mesh units, and the total curvature is calculated according to the equation (7) for each filter element. To do. Expression (7) is a determination expression representing the shape of the curved surface of f (i + x, j + y) filtered as a quadric surface.

[0028]

(Equation 7)

The total curvature represents the shape of the rainfall intensity pattern after filtering. When G <0, the elliptic point,
G> 0 indicates a hyperbolic point, and G = 0 indicates a parabolic point. In the process 34, the labeling process used in the field of image processing is performed on the elliptic points, that is, G ≦ 0 and upward convex among the respective filter elements. Here, the filter element having rainfall is processed in correspondence with the black pixel in the image processing. In this process, the pattern of rainfall intensity is
This means that the upwardly convex elliptical region is extracted. Different labels are added to the filter elements belonging to different areas. The process 34 calculates the principal curvature for each filter element. In process 36, the filter element having the largest main curvature (maximum value) is selected from the filter elements belonging to the same label based on the results of processes 34 and 35. The coordinates of the filter element selected here are called feature points. Feature points are obtained for all labels and are listed (called a feature point list). In process 37, a feature point pair is obtained from the feature point list calculated in the previous cycle and the feature point list created this time. As the feature point pair, the feature point j of the previous cycle is selected so that the distance between the feature point j in the feature point list of the previous cycle and the feature point i created this time becomes the minimum. This selection process is performed for all feature points created this time. Finally, in process 38, process 37
From the feature point pair (i, j) created in
The moving direction and the moving amount are calculated and used as the moving vector. The movement vector is obtained for all feature point pairs. In this embodiment, by using the secondary filter,
Although the movement vector was calculated, as a method for obtaining the movement vector, there is another method using an advection model used at the river information center.

As described above, the movement vector calculation processing 16
The movement vector obtained in step 1 is distributed to each pump station, treatment plant, and storage facility monitoring control system 28, and the rainfall prediction model 1
11. Used in the rainfall information / precipitation prediction display processing 19 to obtain the driving support information of the self-drainage area or the predicted rainfall value for the self-drainage area.

4 to 6 are display examples as the driving support information in the process 19, and FIG. 7 is a process flow of the rainfall prediction model 111. Since the processing result of FIG. 7 and the intermediate result are displayed together with the topographic map data 110 in FIGS. 4 to 6, description will be given here with reference to both drawings.

First, in step 51, the movement vector is extrapolated to obtain the movement amount of the feature point after the prediction time. For example, the activation cycle in the movement vector calculation process 16 is 5
Minutes, the prediction time is 30 minutes, that is, the rainfall amount after 30 minutes is to be predicted. Since the movement amount of the movement vector (the length of the vector in FIG. 4) indicates the movement amount of the feature point for 5 minutes, the movement amount for 30 minutes can be extrapolated to 30/6 = 5 times. It will be good. FIG. 5 shows the result of the process up to this point as driving support information. In this embodiment, the movement vector of the extrapolated portion is represented by the dotted line, but a method such as changing the color of the extrapolated portion is also possible as a display method.

Next, in process 52, the extrapolated movement vector that minimizes the distance from the prediction target area 41 is selected. Any one of the following methods is used as a method of selecting the movement vector with the minimum distance. The first method is to select the one having the shortest distance between the end point of the extrapolated movement vector and the prediction target area, and the second method is to minimize the length of the perpendicular line drawn from the prediction target area to the movement vector. Is a way to choose what will be. Since the prediction target area 41 is an area having a width, when the distance is obtained, the distance is calculated with reference to a specific point in the area 41, for example, the center point.

Further, in processing 53, the movement vector is translated so that the end point of the movement vector selected in processing 52 becomes the reference point of the prediction target area. Finally, in the process 54, the rainfall amount in the region (region 42 in FIG. 6) of the movement vector start point after the parallel movement, that is, the rainfall intensity data (Rr data), is calculated as the predicted rainfall value in the prediction target area 42. To be adopted as. Processing 53,
What is displayed based on the result obtained in FIG.
Is. In this display example, by overlaying it on the rainfall intensity (Rr) data display, it becomes possible to easily understand which rain zone is approaching, in addition to the predicted rainfall amount, as the driving support information.

According to this embodiment, the following effects can be expected.

(1) In addition to the rainfall amount (Rr data), it is possible to predict the rainfall and reduce the transmission amount by merely delivering only the movement vector to each pump station, processing plant, etc. It can respond to the real-time distribution of rainfall information and increase in the number of distribution stations.

(2) At each treatment plant and pumping station, it is possible to predict rainfall in the self-drainage area with a simple algorithm using movement vectors, and it is possible to deal with rain without special treatment equipment. Also, since it has real-time characteristics, it can be incorporated into an automatic control system.

(3) Since the moving speed and direction of the rain area are displayed together with the present rainfall amount and the predicted rainfall value, the operators of each treatment plant and pumping station are required to deal with sudden rising rain, Giving room for countermeasure planning and supporting proper driving.

[0039]

According to the present invention, it is possible to accurately predict rainfall information in a limited narrow prediction target area.

[Brief description of drawings]

FIG. 1 is an overall configuration diagram of a rainfall prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[Fig. 2] Schematic overall configuration diagram of rainfall prediction / rainwater drainage support system.

FIG. 3 is a flowchart of a moving vector calculation process.

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a display example of a rainfall movement vector.

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing a display example in which a rainfall movement vector is extrapolated for an estimated time.

FIG. 6 is a diagram showing a display example in which an extrapolated rainfall movement vector is translated.

FIG. 7 is a rainfall prediction processing flowchart.

[Explanation of symbols]

12 ... Radar site communication processing device, 13 ... Communication processing, 1
4 ... Radar signal processing, 15 ... Rainfall data file, 16
... movement vector calculation process, 17 ... delivery process, 18 ... reception process, 19 ... rainfall information, rainfall prediction display process, 20 ... radar site, 22 ... center processing device, 24 ... rainwater drainage pump station, 26 ... rainwater storage facility, 27 ... Sewage treatment plant, 28
… Monitoring and control system, 110… Topographic map data, 111…
Rainfall prediction processing, 112 ... Inflow prediction processing, 113 ... Driving support processing, 114 ... Rainwater drainage, storage amount control.

Claims (14)

[Claims] 1. Means for creating rainfall intensity data of a mesh rainfall distribution from the received power amount transmitted from a radar site, and means for calculating a rainfall movement vector based on a plurality of the rainfall intensity data having different measurement times. And a means for extrapolating the rainfall movement vector, in a rainfall prediction system for predicting movement of a rain area by an extrapolation rainfall movement vector, in the rainfall intensity data, as the rainfall movement vector calculation means, Means for calculating a plurality of rainfall movement vector obtained by comparing the rainfall movement direction of the point where the rainfall intensity is higher than that of the other rainfall intensity data having different measurement times, each of the plurality of rainfall movement vectors Of the multiple extrapolated rainfall movement vectors obtained by extrapolation, the one with the shortest distance to the prediction target area is A rainfall prediction system comprising means for selecting a rainfall movement vector of a measurement target area. 2. The rainfall movement vector selection means according to claim 1, wherein a plurality of extrapolated rainfall movement vectors having a shortest distance between the vector end point and the prediction target area is the rainfall in the prediction target area. A rainfall prediction system comprising means for selecting as a movement vector. 3. The rainfall movement vector selecting means according to claim 1, wherein a length of a vertical line from the prediction target area for the plurality of extrapolated rainfall movement vectors is the shortest as the rainfall movement vector of the prediction target area. A rainfall prediction system comprising means for selecting. 4. The rainfall prediction system according to claim 2, further comprising means for translating a selected rainfall movement vector of the prediction target area to the prediction target area in parallel. 5. The rainfall in which the latest rainfall amount sent from the radar site for the selected rainfall movement vector of the prediction target area is the rainfall amount of the prediction target area according to claim 2 or 3. A rainfall forecasting system comprising a quantity forecasting means. 6. The method according to any one of claims 1 to 4,
A plurality of rainfall movement vectors obtained by the rainfall movement vector calculation means, an extrapolated rainfall movement vector including an extrapolated rainfall movement vector and a translated vector, and means for displaying the extrapolated rainfall movement vector together with the prediction target area. Rainfall forecast system. 7. The rainfall movement vector calculation means according to claim 1, wherein the points of higher rainfall intensity in the rainfall intensity data of the mesh rainfall distribution compared to the surroundings are compared with respect to a plurality of rainfall intensity data having different measurement times. Then, the rainfall prediction system is provided with a means for connecting the points having the closest distance between the data as a movement direction and calculating a rainfall movement vector. 8. Means for creating rainfall intensity data of a mesh rainfall distribution from the received power amount transmitted from the radar site, and means for calculating a rainfall movement vector based on a plurality of rainfall intensity data with different measurement times. In the rainfall prediction system, which comprises means for extrapolating the rainfall movement vector, the movement direction of a point in the rainfall intensity data having a higher rainfall intensity than that in the surrounding area has a different measurement time as the rainfall movement vector calculation means. A prediction target of a plurality of extrapolated rainfall movement vectors obtained by extrapolating each of the plurality of rainfall movement vectors by providing a means for calculating a plurality of rainfall movement vectors by comparing with other rainfall intensity data The one with the closest distance to the area is selected as the rainfall movement vector of the prediction target area, and the selected rainfall movement vector is Rainfall prediction system, characterized by that the rainfall amount of movement comprises means for providing as rainfall information of the prediction target area. 9. A center processing device for creating a rainfall distribution of an observation area based on a signal transmitted from a radar site in real time to calculate a plurality of rainfall movement vectors, and a plurality of center processing devices By distributing the rainfall movement vector to the monitoring control device of the water treatment facility such as the rainwater drainage pump station, the sewage treatment plant and the rainwater storage facility scattered through the communication network, and extrapolating the rainfall movement vector by the monitoring control device. A rainfall prediction system for determining rainfall amount and rainfall prediction time of the water treatment facility, wherein in the center treatment device, the received power amount transmitted from a radar site is converted into rainfall intensity to calculate the mesh rainfall distribution. Radar signal processing means for creating rainfall intensity data, rainfall data storage means for storing the obtained rainfall intensity data,
Means for calculating a plurality of rainfall movement vectors by referring to the stored rainfall data, and distribution for distributing the obtained rainfall movement vectors and the rainfall data stored in the rainfall storage means to the monitoring control device of the water treatment facility A rainfall prediction system comprising means. 10. The rain movement vector calculating means according to claim 9, wherein points of rainfall intensity higher than those of surrounding areas in the rainfall intensity data of the mesh rainfall distribution are compared with other rainfall intensity data having different measurement times. Then, the rainfall prediction system is provided with means for calculating a movement vector by connecting points that are closest to each other between points having the highest rainfall intensity among the data and set the movement direction. 11. The rainfall amount and rain range of the water treatment facility according to claim 10, by extrapolating a plurality of rainfall movement vectors sent from the center treatment device into the monitoring control device of the water treatment facility. A rainfall prediction system comprising: a rainfall prediction means for predicting an arrival time; and a display means for displaying the obtained rainfall movement vector after extrapolation of the water treatment facility and rainfall data. 12. The rainfall predicting means according to claim 11, wherein a plurality of rainfall movement vectors in the vicinity of the water treatment facility are extracted and extrapolated from a plurality of rainfall movement vectors sent from the center treatment device. Rainfall prediction comprising means and means for selecting, from the obtained plurality of extrapolated rainfall movement vectors, the one having the closest distance to the prediction target area as the rainfall movement vector of the prediction target area. system. 13. Means for successively receiving rainfall information from a rainfall observation network such as a rainfall radar and a surface rain gauge, converting the digitized information into digital information, and displaying and outputting the information on a graphic display device together with topographic map information, and the received rainfall amount. In a term prediction system having a processing device that performs a rainfall prediction process using information, in the process of the rainfall prediction process, a rainfall movement vector is calculated,
A function of displaying the received rainfall amount on a graphic display device, a function of extrapolating and displaying the rainfall movement vector by a movement amount corresponding to the prediction time, and predicting the rainfall amount from the end points of the extrapolated rainfall movement vector Select the one that is closest to the target point you want to
A function to display it so that it can be distinguished from other rainfall movement vectors, and the selected extrapolated rainfall movement vector is translated and displayed so that its end point matches the prediction target point, and the vector after translation is also displayed. Equipped with a display device that has the function of marking the rainfall information display part at the start point of the, and the function of adopting and displaying the rainfall amount displayed at the marked part as the predicted rainfall value at the target point after the prediction time. Rainfall prediction system characterized by 14. A water comprising means for controlling an operation amount of a monitoring controller of a water treatment facility in the prediction target area based on the rainfall prediction information of the prediction target area obtained in claim 10. Processing facility operation support equipment.